The global economy is entering a period of uneven growth momentum, an uncertain inflation path and renewed divergence in central-bank policy. This opening keynote sets out the macro scenarios that matter most for 2026–2027: where growth is likely to hold up or weaken, how inflation pressures evolve across regions, and how fiscal dynamics and labour-market constraints may shape the policy reaction function. This talk will also examine AI and the capex cycle as a potential driver of productivity, earnings and medium-term inflation- alongside the implications for rates, risk appetite and currency regimes.